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Rabat - Morocco is among the countries with medium risk to see political violence in 2015, according to the leading global risk-analytics firm Verisk Maplecroft.
The firm's Political Risks Atlas (PRA), issued on Thursday reveals that 2014 witnessed a significant surge in terrorism risks, with total global fatalities increasing by almost 25% to 18,598 between 1 November 2013 and 31 October 2014 compared with a yearly average of 14,951 in the period 2008 to 2013.
Mass-casualty attacks by Islamist militant groups, such as the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria and Boko Haram in Nigeria, have also led to a higher death toll per attack –from 1.43 per attack between 2008 and 2013 to 2.09 in 2014, says the firm.
Despite attempts to combat the Islamic State, Maplecroft expects the upward trajectory of terrorism and political violence to continue over 2015. Outside of Syria, Iraq and Nigeria, Maplecroft highlights Egypt and Libya as countries to watch, as terrorist incidents have nearly doubled in the past year.
The firm also expects ‘shaky’ global stability to remain in 2015 due to four main challenges including militant Islamism threats, Russian foreign policy, global corruption and elections in countries like Myanmar and Nigeria.
“Poor governance, extreme levels of corruption and civil unrest are among the key challenges facing business operations in the emerging markets over 2015,” Charlotte Ingham, principal political risk analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, said in a statement.
The firm also said that besides terrorism, Russia's foreign policy could be a significant source of future political risk and uncertainty. It expressed concern that Russian President Vladimir Putin would start external conflicts to preserve the popular support in light of deteriorating economic situation in Moscow.
The PRA, ,which scores 198 countries on 54 political risks to enable organizations to identify risks to their operations, investments and supply chains, identifies ten countries as posing an ‘extreme risk’ for dynamic, short-term risks, such as terrorism, conflict and rule of law.
Somalia marginally retains its status as the highest risk country for the 7th year, over Syria in 2nd place, followed by Central African Republic (3rd), South Sudan (4th), Iraq (5th), Libya (6th), Afghanistan (7th), DR Congo (8th), Sudan (9th), and Yemen (10th). Nigeria (11th), Pakistan (12th) and Myanmar (13th) are on the cusp of the ‘extreme risk’ category.
